February 27, 2008
Impression from Spain: Prepare for a hard landing
Just coming back from a short holiday in Spain, I am now more confident than ever that the Iberian economy is heading for a nasty period of adjustment. Even though growth in Q4 of last year surprised on the upside (0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter compared to 0.4 percent in the euro area as a whole), it already feels like a recession in Spain. Unemployment has risen by about half a percentage point in seasonal adjusted terms since last summer, retail sales and industrial production have dropped below the level from one year ago. The newspapers already write about "la crisis".
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